The latest Agriculture Sector Survey in Kenya, conducted in January 2025, highlights a mix of challenges and optimism in the sector. While prices of key agricultural commodities have risen due to seasonal and climatic factors, expectations for output and acreage remain positive.
Kenya Agriculture: Price Trends and Market Expectations
According to the survey, retail prices of essential food commodities, including maize flour, fresh cow milk, and vegetables like kale, spinach, and tomatoes, increased in January 2025 compared to December 2024. Price hikes resulted from the dry season and poor short rains (October–December 2024). Farmers and traders anticipate further price increases in February, reflecting ongoing seasonal impacts.
Kenya Agriculture: Factors Influencing Prices
Several factors contributed to the rise in food prices. Weather conditions played a significant role, with some regions experiencing below-average rainfall, affecting crop yields. Transport costs, supply chain disruptions, and labor expenses also influenced pricing trends. Notably, the share of respondents citing weather as a price driver increased to 86% in January, up from 62% in November 2024.
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Growth in Production and Acreage
Despite price challenges, farmers remain optimistic about increasing acreage and output. Survey respondents expressed confidence in the upcoming March-May 2025 long rains, expecting to boost crop production. Government initiatives, notably the subsidized fertilizer program, have contributed to further expansion. In January 2025, 69% of farmers reported accessing subsidized fertilizer, the highest percentage recorded in recent surveys.
Credit Access and Market Challenges
Access to credit for farming activities remains challenging, with high interest rates and lack of collateral being the primary barriers. However, the proportion of farmers borrowing for agriculture has risen steadily, reaching 48% in January 2025, up from 28% in September 2024. Most of these loans went to purchase inputs, with 95% of respondents citing fertilizers, seeds, and pesticides as the main expenses.
Market access and price fluctuations continue to pose significant challenges. Over 80% of farmers cited volatile prices as a key issue, particularly for perishable produce like tomatoes, onions, and cabbages. Farmers suggested improved price stabilization mechanisms, better transport infrastructure, and enhanced storage facilities to reduce post-harvest losses.
Policy Recommendations for Growth
To sustain growth and stability in the agriculture sector, farmers and stakeholders recommend several policy interventions:
- Expansion of irrigation infrastructure to reduce reliance on rainfall.
- Increased access to affordable and high-quality farm inputs.
- Price stabilization mechanisms for agricultural produce.
- Enhanced mechanization through subsidized tractor services.
- Strengthening of extension services for improved farming techniques.
- Improvement of rural road networks to facilitate market access.
Future Outlook
Despite current price challenges, the outlook for Kenya’s agriculture sector remains optimistic. With anticipated favorable weather conditions and continued government support, farmers expect increased output and economic growth. Strengthening access to credit, infrastructure, and market stability will be key to sustaining the sector’s positive trajectory in 2025.